PANAMA / RankWire.AI / – The Panama Canal could see its daily vessel count reduced to approximately 29 ships in February or March 2027 if drought persists, according to its newly appointed administrator. Ilya Espino de Marotta assumed her role on Sept. 7 and highlighted the potential impact of El Niño on reservoir levels. The operation of the canal depends on freshwater from rainfall-fed lakes to function its locks. As a response to below-average rainfall across the watershed, the Panama Canal Authority has initiated phased reductions in capacity.
Since Sept. 3, the canal has offered nine daily Neopanamax slots and 25 Panamax slots, totaling 34 available positions. Beginning Sept. 15, the number of Panamax slots will drop to 23, bringing the overall daily capacity down to 32. These adjustments are a consequence of diminished rainfall during Panama’s rainy season and reduced inflows into the canal’s watershed. To conserve water, authorities are implementing water-saving strategies and stricter booking controls while closely monitoring Gatun Lake and other key water sources.
According to official operational data, the canal averaged 35 transits per day during fiscal 2026 up to June 30. From October to June, it handled 10,726 transits, reflecting a 5.2% increase compared to the same period the previous year. These figures predate the latest decline in rainfall, which has resulted in tighter operational restrictions. The canal, which links the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, plays a crucial role in global trade, facilitating shipments of containers, energy commodities, bulk goods, and other cargo.
Water shortages prompt capacity restrictions
Ship locks rely on freshwater sourced from Gatun Lake and Alhajuela Lake to lift and lower vessels during transit. Consequently, reservoir levels directly influence the number of ships that can traverse the waterway during extended dry spells. During the severe drought of 2023, daily transits decreased to 22 in December when Gatun Lake levels dropped to unusually low levels. Capacity later improved following increased rainfall and conservation efforts that helped stabilize available water for both canal operations and public use.
In addition, the canal has modified vessel draft restrictions as part of its water management efforts. On Sept. 4, officials deferred a planned reduction in the maximum draft for Neopanamax ships to 47.5 feet. The existing 48-foot limit remains in effect after assessments of Gatun Lake’s levels and updated weather forecasts. Draft limits control how deeply loaded ships can sit in the water, representing a key operational parameter, especially for vessels carrying heavier cargo.
Changes to booking procedures as capacity shrinks
The canal has also revised booking and auction procedures in response to reduced available capacity. Auction slots are now grouped daily by cargo category, including gas carriers, bulk ships, container vessels, and tankers. When conditions are equal, full container ships with higher capacity are prioritized for Neopanamax transit allocations. Officials are encouraging vessels without reservations to use the booking system since limited capacity could lead to longer wait times. Confirmed reservations remain the only way to secure a specific transit date.
No official orders have been issued to cut capacity further to 29 ships daily. The administrator indicated this level as a potential limit for February or March if dry weather persists. The canal’s experts continue to monitor rainfall patterns, watershed inflows, and lake levels before implementing additional operational adjustments. Moreover, the canal is advancing the Río Indio reservoir project to increase long-term water storage capacity. This initiative is part of Panama’s broader strategy to ensure water availability for canal operations and serve more than half of the nation’s population.